Groping is a trial-and-error (oscillating) process in which many different options are examined and even tested. It plays a critical role in any evolutionary process. For instance, natural biological evolution requires the spontaneous fluctuation of species and the subsequent irreversible selection of specific species-specific characteristics. Successful adaptation of any type—whether individual or organizational, reactive or creative—must always contain a random component. In essence, an organism that is seeking to adapt to a changing condition or environment begins by trying out a variety of behaviors. It will fluctuate in its behavior and become temporarily unpredictable, as in the case of the ball’s oscillating back and forth at the top of the warped plane.

Several biologists have recently suggested that oscillation tends to occur in many organisms at a point immediately prior to its transition from a stable to chaotic state and its ultimate commitment to a specific, irreversible course of action (a bifurcation). Many of these oscillating behaviors— these trial-and-error (innovative) efforts—are not effective. They do not work. One or two do work, however, leading the organism to expand its repertoire and shift its regular mode of functioning to accommodate these changes. The exploratory processes—the endless trial and error of mental progress—can achieve the new state only by embarking upon pathways randomly presented, some of which are selected for the survival of an individual or organization. We may, as a species, be involved right now in this exploratory process regarding our capacity to live with our current pandemic and other pandemics that will inevitably occur in our increasingly flat and interconnected world.

Confronting the Virus on a Warped Plane

We return to Waddington’s warped plane to get a concrete sense of this dynamic, ordering process as it relates to COVID-19. At the start, as the ball is rolling down the warped plane it encounters the first warp (a ridge with two adjacent valleys). At this point, it tends to oscillate. As just noted, oscillations tend to precede bifurcation. At the point when the ball ceases to oscillate and begins to move down one of the adjacent valleys, an irreversible decision has occurred. This is the dynamic operating when a virus leaps from one region of the world (one valley on the plane) to another region. Typically, there is just a small number of infected people who usually have traveled from the original region of infection. The infection can be immediately detected, and the infected person quarantined. Nothing occurs. The virus is “stopped in its track.” It is a matter of perfect timing and fast response. The oscillation in this instance is the moment of decision being made by those in medical authority. Unfortunately, the response is often not timely or fast. Many delaying or deferring questions are asked:

“Are we sure this is the dreaded virus?”

“I thought it was present only in xxxx (name of country or region).”

“This could just be a nasty flu. We certainly don’t want to alarm people in this community—they are already stressed out.”

“If we announce that one person has been infected and quarantined then our economy will immediately go down in flames! All because one old person got sick (or) All because that damned tourist went to the wrong country and hung out with the wrong people!”